# Keeping weight off: what we know about the yo-yo effect

Losing weight is one half, keeping it off the other. Many people regain. The German guideline calls this the main problem and does not put it down to a lack of discipline alone.[^1]

## What yo-yo means

It means that weight rises again after a loss, often to the starting value or above. Besides behaviour, the S3 guideline names the environment and bodily adaptations in hunger, fullness, energy use and hormones.[^1] There is no single definition.

## How often it happens

According to the S3 guideline, most people regain 30 to 50% of what they lost in the first year, and over half are back at their starting weight or above after three to five years. The basis there is a single programme analysis.[^1]

Still, not everything is lost: in 29 US studies, weight after five years was on average still more than 3 kg below the start.[^2] In 249 studies with 59,081 people, participants gained faster than comparison groups after the programme ended, but stayed lower for at least five years.[^3]

**Do 95% of diets fail?** This figure is not backed up. It is usually traced to a paper from 1959, long before today's programmes.[^4] What you find depends on the yardstick: in a US survey of 14,306 people, 36.6% said they had kept off at least 5% for a year, and 17.3% at least 10%.[^5] Regain is common, that much is true. That weight loss almost never works is not.

## Why the body pushes back

In 50 people, hormones such as leptin and the feeling of hunger were still shifted towards eating one year after a strict diet. The study was small and covered one type of diet.[^6]

One review estimates that per kilogram lost, energy use falls by 20 to 30 kcal a day and appetite rises by about 100 kcal a day. These are model calculations.[^7] More under [When weight stops moving](https://kostenlos-abnehmen.de/en/wissen/plateau).

## Does going up and down do harm?

That yo-yo dieting destroys metabolism is not backed up. In a review of 23 studies, 12 of 14 found no harmful change in resting metabolism and 15 of 20 found no gain in fat.[^8]

Observational studies still see a link between fluctuating weight and a higher risk of death.[^9] Often, however, they do not separate wanted weight loss from loss through illness. An expert view from 2026 considers causal harm not proven.[^10]

Even after regain, something often stays: in 124 studies, blood lipids and long-term blood sugar were still lower one and five years after the programme.[^11] So another attempt is no mistake.

## What goes with keeping it off

A review of 67 studies found that age or sex were not decisive. What helped was keeping an eye on the energy balance.[^12] The S3 guideline names:[^1]

- watching portions and choosing foods with lower energy density
- eating more vegetables and fruit
- moving more
- looking at the trend regularly
- the feeling of being in charge

A US registry of people who have kept off a lot is often quoted. Of 2,886 participants, an average of 23.1 kg of a 31.3 kg loss was still gone after ten years.[^13] But it only covers successful people and relies on self-reports. The daily amount of movement they reported was clearly lower when measured.[^14] So this is no success rate for everyone.

## What programmes achieve

The S3 guideline recommends combining lasting measures after weight loss: nutrition, movement, behaviour, motivation.[^1] The effect is rather small: in 45 studies with 7,788 people, such programmes reduced regain after one year by 1.56 kg.[^15]

In a trial of 314 people, 45.7% in a personally supported programme built around weighing gained at least 2.3 kg within 18 months, against 72.4% in the comparison group.[^16] How often weighing makes sense, and when it does not, is under [Why the scale moves](https://kostenlos-abnehmen.de/en/wissen/wasser-und-gewicht).

There is no proven number of minutes for movement. The guideline suggests that a rather small increase in daily life may be enough.[^1] More under [Movement and weight loss](https://kostenlos-abnehmen.de/en/wissen/bewegung).

## What is realistic

The S3 guideline sets a goal of at least 5% loss within six to twelve months at a BMI of 25 to 34.9, and at least 10% from 35.[^1] Wishes are often far higher: in a study of 60 women it was 32%.[^17]

Weight also comes back after medicines, more under [Weight-loss injections](https://kostenlos-abnehmen.de/en/wissen/abnehmspritze). A setback says nothing about you. If the trend shows more again, it often helps to look at what has changed in daily life. If this puts you under pressure, or you feel you are losing control over eating, read [Stress and emotional eating](https://kostenlos-abnehmen.de/en/wissen/emotionales-essen).

## Sources

[^1]: [German Obesity Society (DAG): S3 guideline on obesity, AWMF 050-001, version 5.0, 2024](https://register.awmf.org/assets/guidelines/050-001l_S3_Praevention-Therapie-Adipositas_2024-10.pdf)
[^2]: [Anderson JW et al.: Long-term weight-loss maintenance: a meta-analysis of US studies. Am J Clin Nutr, 2001](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11684524/)
[^3]: [Hartmann-Boyce J et al.: Association between characteristics of behavioural weight loss programmes and weight change after programme end. BMJ, 2021](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34404631/)
[^4]: [Stunkard A, McLaren-Hume M: The results of treatment for obesity. AMA Arch Intern Med, 1959](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/13605305/)
[^5]: [Kraschnewski JL et al.: Long-term weight loss maintenance in the United States. Int J Obes, 2010](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20479763/)
[^6]: [Sumithran P et al.: Long-term persistence of hormonal adaptations to weight loss. N Engl J Med, 2011](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22029981/)
[^7]: [Hall KD, Kahan S: Maintenance of Lost Weight and Long-Term Management of Obesity. Med Clin North Am, 2018](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29156185/)
[^8]: [Sanaya N et al.: The Physiological Effects of Weight-Cycling. Curr Obes Rep, 2024](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38172475/)
[^9]: [Zou H et al.: Body-Weight Fluctuation Was Associated With Increased Risk for Cardiovascular Disease, All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality. Front Endocrinol, 2019](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31787929/)
[^10]: [Magkos F et al.: Is weight cycling clinically harmful? Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol, 2026](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42134367/)
[^11]: [Hartmann-Boyce J et al.: Long-Term Effect of Weight Regain Following Behavioral Weight Management Programs. Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes, 2023](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36974678/)
[^12]: [Varkevisser RDM et al.: Determinants of weight loss maintenance: a systematic review. Obes Rev, 2019](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30324651/)
[^13]: [Thomas JG et al.: Weight-loss maintenance for 10 years in the National Weight Control Registry. Am J Prev Med, 2014](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24355667/)
[^14]: [Catenacci VA et al.: Physical activity patterns using accelerometry in the National Weight Control Registry. Obesity, 2011](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21030947/)
[^15]: [Dombrowski SU et al.: Long term maintenance of weight loss with non-surgical interventions in obese adults. BMJ, 2014](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25134100/)
[^16]: [Wing RR et al.: A self-regulation program for maintenance of weight loss. N Engl J Med, 2006](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17035649/)
[^17]: [Foster GD et al.: What is a reasonable weight loss? J Consult Clin Psychol, 1997](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9103737/)

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Last updated: November 2026. This is general information and not medical advice.

Original article: https://kostenlos-abnehmen.de/en/wissen/gewicht-halten